Battery Materials Market Weekly

Week 1 Analysis (Jan 4, 2026)

Executive Summary

LCE Surges Higher

Lithium Carbonate rallies to ¥119,000/t ($16,920), up 3.5% WoW. Futures-driven speculation and spot hoarding create bullish momentum.

Cathode Prices Ease

LFP Power Grade dips to ¥44,200/t ($6,285), down 2.9% WoW on lithium correction.

LiPF₆ Decline Continues

Electrolyte salt slides to ¥165,000/t ($23,460), down 4.1% WoW on overcapacity.

Anode Margin Capture

Mid-tier artificial anode holds at ¥27,500/t ($3,910). Producers capture margin from feedstock shifts.

Market at a Glance

Weekly Price Direction Heatmap (USD/t, Ex-VAT)

Anode Materials

High-End Artificial

→ STABLE

$7,607 USD/t

NCM Cathodes

5-Series (Single Crystal)

↑ FIRM

$21,527 USD/t

LFP Cathode

Power Grade

↓ SOFT

$6,285 USD/t

Lithium Carbonate

Battery Grade

↑ SURGE

$16,920 USD/t

LiOH

Battery Granular

↑ SURGE

$15,640 USD/t

LiPF₆

Average Market

↓ PLUNGE

$23,460 USD/t

LCO

4.35V Grade

→ STABLE

$54,030 USD/t

LMO

Dynamical MnO₂

↑ SURGE

$7,109 USD/t

Anode Market Analysis

Graphite Pricing (USD/t Avg)

Artificial Graphite remains the dominant power baseline.

Market Commentary

Feedstock Dynamics

GPC and needle coke markets remain largely stable. Anode producers continue operating with measured inventory management.

Supply Discipline

Anode enterprises producing on strict "sales-based" model to avoid inventory bloat. Supply discipline keeping prices stable.

Technology Shift: LWG vs Acheson

Transition to LWG furnaces (2,500-3,000 kWh/MT) from Acheson (4,000-4,800 kWh/MT) enables massive margin capture for advanced producers.

Cathode Market: Pricing Snapshots

LFP (Power Grade)$6,285/t ↓
NCM 613 (Single Crystal)$21,527/t ↑
NCM 5-Series (Single/Power)$21,527/t ↑
LCO (4.35V)$54,030/t →
LMO (Dynamical MnO₂)$7,109/t ↑

Cathode Dynamics:Cathode prices easing on lithium correction. LFP dipped 2.9% WoW to $6,285/t.

Cathode Comparison (USD/t)

Direct lithium cost pass-through across chemistries.

Lithium Carbonate Market

Battery Grade (99.5%)Bullish Breakout
$16,920/t ↑
Industrial Grade (99.2%)Following Trend
$16,636/t ↑

Market Analysis: LCE surged to ¥119,000/t ($16,920), up 3.5% WoW. Futures speculation and spot hoarding drive the rally.

LCE Price Movement (USD/t Avg)

Breaking higher around the $16.9k level.

Electrolyte & LiOH Markets

Lithium Hydroxide (USD/t Avg)

LiOH trading at $1,280/t discount to LCE.

LiPF₆ Status (USD/t Avg)

Declining on overcapacity.

What Moved the Market This Week?

Lithium Speculation Intensifies

Futures-driven buying continues to push LCE higher. Spot traders suspending offers in anticipation of further gains.

Electrolyte Overcapacity Weighs

LiPF₆ continues descent (-4.1% WoW) as new capacity outpaces demand growth.

LiOH Discount Persists

LiOH trades at $1,280/t discount to LCE, signaling oversupply in high-nickel chemistry.

Anode Supply Discipline

Graphite anode enterprises continue "sales-based" production model. Despite feedstock cost movements, prices stable as manufacturers prioritize margin.

Strategic Outlook

Risk Warning: The divergence between rising lithium and falling electrolyte creates asymmetric risk. Cell manufacturers face margin compression as cathode costs rise while electrolyte savings partially offset.

D3CT Recommendation: Lock in electrolyte contracts at current favorable levels while hedging lithium exposure. The technical efficiency of your supply chain will determine who captures margin.

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