Battery Materials Market Weekly

Week 50 Analysis (Dec 11, 2025)

Executive Summary

LiPF₆ Cost Floor Set

Electrolyte salts have solidified a high plateau at 178,000 RMB/t ($25,161). Driven by PCl5 constraints, this sets a new, higher cost floor for 2026.

Anode Decoupling

Despite falling coke feedstocks, anode prices remain rigid at 53,500 RMB/t (High-End). Manufacturers are defending margins rather than passing savings downstream.

LFP Prices Rise

LFP (Power) ticked up to 41,200 RMB/t ($5,824). A massive 77% surge in exports is driving volume, while phosphorus costs push prices higher.

LMO Slides Further

LMO prices dropped to 40,000 RMB/t ($5,654) due to weak e-bike demand. The gap between LFP and LMO pricing is narrowing.

Market at a Glance

Weekly Price Direction Heatmap (USD/t, Ex-VAT)

Anode Materials

Mid-Grade Artificial

→ FLAT

$3,887 USD/t

NCM Cathodes

5-Series (Single Crystal)

→ FLAT

$20,270 USD/t

LCO Cathode

4.45V Grade

→ FLAT

$53,855 USD/t

LFP Cathode

Power Grade

↑ RISING

$5,824 USD/t

Lithium Carbonate

Battery Grade

~ FLUX

$13,287 USD/t

Lithium Hydroxide

Battery (Granular)

↓ SOFTENING

$11,577 USD/t

Electrolyte Salt

LiPF₆

↑ HIGH PLATEAU

$25,161 USD/t

Anode Feedstocks

GPC & Pitch

↓ WEAK

Declining

Anode Market Analysis

Graphite Pricing (USD/t Avg)

Prices flat despite lower feedstock costs.

Market Commentary

Pricing Decoupling

A significant disconnect has emerged. GPC feedstock costs dropped 1.44%, yet High-End Artificial Graphite held firm at RMB 53,500/t. Producers are not passing savings downstream.

Margin Defense

Manufacturers are leveraging high capacity utilization and energy-intensive graphitization moats to rebuild margins eroded earlier in 2025.

Technical Shift

The price gap between High-End Synthetic ($7.5k) and Natural ($7.0k) graphite has narrowed to just ~7%, prompting engineers to favor Synthetic for better cycle life.

Cathode Market: Pricing Snapshots

LFP (Power Grade) $5,824/t ↑
NCM 8-Series (Poly/Power) $22,715/t →
NCM 5-Series (Single/Power) $20,270/t →
LCO (4.45V) $53,855/t →
LMO (Power, MnO2) $5,654/t ↓

Snapshot Analysis: LFP prices rose due to "skyrocketing" Phosphorus Pentachloride (PCl5) costs and a 77% surge in exports. NCM held steady on Cobalt support, while LMO weakened on poor e-bike demand.

Cathode Price Comparison (USD/t)

LFP shows buoyancy against a flat NCM market.

Lithium Carbonate Market

Battery Grade (99.5%) Mainstream Spot
$13,287/t ~
Industrial Grade (99.2%) Mainstream Spot
$13,004/t ~

Market Dynamics: LCE prices have settled into a "high-altitude equilibrium" around RMB 94k. While futures remain volatile, spot transactions are limited. LFP and NCM 811 currently show identical sensitivity to LCE shocks (~$0.12/kWh per ¥1,000 change).

LCE Price Trend (USD/t Avg)

Market fluctuating at high-end levels.

Electrolyte & LiOH Markets

Lithium Hydroxide (USD/t Avg)

LiOH inched down as NCM demand plateaus.

LiPF₆ Price Surge (USD/t Avg)

LiPF₆ stabilized at a high of ~$25k/t.

What Moved the Market This Week?

LiPF₆ & PCl5 Shock

LiPF₆ stabilized at a high RMB 178k/t. The driver is Phosphorus Pentachloride (PCl5), which "skyrocketed" to RMB 8,000/t, creating a bottleneck that extends beyond Lithium.

LFP Export Boom

LFP exports surged 77% month-on-month in October (data confirmed Dec 11). This explodes the myth that LFP is purely domestic and confirms aggressive Western stockpiling.

Anode Margin Defense

Anode producers refused to drop prices despite lower coke costs. They are engaging in "margin defense" to recover losses from Q3, leveraging energy-intensive processing moats.

LCE vs LiOH Inversion

Anomalous inversion persists: LCE (Carbonate) is trading higher than Hydroxide. This disincentivizes converters from producing Hydroxide, risking a future shortage.

Strategic Outlook

Procurement Strategy: Hedge Electrolyte: Secure Q1/Q2 2026 supply immediately to avoid phosphorus-driven inflation. Audit Additives: With VC prices showing massive variance (115k-220k), ensure low-grade additives aren't compromising cycle life.

OEM Action: Re-evaluate LFP: The "cheap" chemistry is facing inflation. Build sensitivity to non-lithium raw materials (Phosphorus) into cost models.

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