Battery Materials Market Weekly

Week 51 Analysis (Dec 18, 2025)

Executive Summary

LCE Price Spiral

Lithium Carbonate has broken out of its stabilization, spiraling to ¥104,000/t ($14,729). Strong futures performance and inventory drawdowns are driving panic replenishment.

LiOH Supply Tightness

Hydroxide prices hiked to ¥86,750/t ($12,286). Converters are shifting production to LCE due to more favorable margins, causing a spot shortage for high-nickel cathode producers.

Cathode Cost Push

LFP and NCM are moving upward in tandem with LCE. LFP (Dynamical) reached ¥43,500/t ($6,161), as manufacturers pass through spiraling lithium and phosphorus costs.

Anode Margin Compression

The anode market remains steady at ¥53,500/t. However, high GPC costs and "bidding-down" pressure from cell plants are forcing smaller players to break-even levels.

Market at a Glance

Weekly Price Direction Heatmap (USD/t, Ex-VAT)

Anode Materials

High-End Artificial

→ STEADY

$7,577 USD/t

NCM Cathodes

5-Series (Single Crystal)

↑ UPWARD

$20,549 USD/t

LFP Cathode

Dynamical Grade

↑ MOUNTED

$6,161 USD/t

Lithium Carbonate

Battery Grade

↑ SPIRAL

$14,729 USD/t

Lithium Hydroxide

Battery (Granular)

↑ HIKED

$12,286 USD/t

Electrolyte Salt

LiPF₆

↓ SOFTENING

$24,784 USD/t

Additives

VC / FEC

→ SETTLED

Stable

GPC Feedstock

Mid-Sulfur

→ SLIDING

$595 USD/t

Anode Market Analysis

Graphite Pricing (USD/t Avg)

Artificial Graphite remains the dominant power baseline.

Market Commentary

Cost Overhang

Domestic mid-sulfur GPC market slightly slid but remains historically high. This exerts significant cost pressure on smaller enterprises that lack integrated graphitization.

Bidding Pressure

Tier-1 battery cell plants are aggressively forcing fresh order prices down. Large integrated players are holding steady, but mid-tier producers are operating at break-even.

Terminal Release

Policies are rapidly releasing terminal demand, stimulating overall orders for Lib anode materials. Concentration is increasing toward players with cost advantages.

Cathode Market: Pricing Snapshots

LFP (Dynamical) $6,161/t ↑
NCM 8-Series (Poly/Power) $22,915/t ↑
NCM 5-Series (Single/Power) $20,549/t ↑
LCO (4.45V) $53,958/t →
LMO (Dynamical, MnO2) $6,231/t ↑

Cathode Dynamics: LFP and NCM markets mounted strongly as producers pass through spiraling LCE costs. Inventory in the LFP sector is declining due to heavy contract commitments, while high-nickel NCM demand remains robust from the power market.

Cathode Comparison (USD/t)

Strong cost-push upward across most chemistries.

Lithium Carbonate Market

Battery Grade (99.5%) Mainstream Spiral
$14,729/t ↑
Industrial Grade (99.2%) Mainstream Spiral
$14,446/t ↑

Market Analysis: LCE spiraled this week as futures prices ramped up strongly. Lithium salt enterprises are actively shipping for immediate orders, while downstream players replenish on rigid demand despite resistance to high spot prices. Inventory is dropping rapidly.

LCE Spiral Trend (USD/t Avg)

Market breaking out of the $13k plateau.

Electrolyte & LiOH Markets

Lithium Hydroxide (USD/t Avg)

LiOH hiked as converters shift to LCE production.

LiPF₆ Status (USD/t Avg)

LiPF₆ showing a "wait-and-see" scenario.

What Moved the Market This Week?

The Production Pivot

Widening gaps between LCE and LiOH prices are disincentivizing converters from producing Hydroxide. Several plants have shifted to Carbonate, triggering a spot shortage in LiOH.

NEV Policy Release

Domestic NEV and energy storage policies are leading to a rapid release of terminal demand. This pull-through is stimulating aggressive replenishment in the mid-stream.

LFP Export Momentum

November LFP exports reached 7,721 tons, a massive increase from the Q3 baseline. Global demand for iron-phosphate chemistry is now a primary price floor driver.

Inventory Drawdown

LCE inventory dropped obviously this week. Panic buying from mid-sized cathode plants is clashing with tight supply in Northwest China, pushing spot premiums higher.

Strategic Outlook

Risk Warning: The current LiOH production pivot toward LCE poses a significant risk for NCM 811 manufacturers in Q1 2026. Spot availability of granular LiOH is expected to tighten further as LCE futures remain bullish.

D3CT Recommendation: Shift to long-term contract fulfillment for Lithium salts and avoid spot-market exposure during the current price spiral.

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