Lithium Carbonate has shattered the psychological RMB 110k ceiling, trading at ¥115,000/t ($16,266). Futures-driven speculation and spot hoarding are creating a bullish Q1 2026 outlook.
NCM and LFP prices are rising in direct correlation with lithium. LFP Power Grade reached ¥45,500/t ($6,435), up 4.6% WoW as producers pass through costs aggressively.
Lithium Hydroxide trades at a $2,000/MT discount to LCE, signaling oversupply in high-nickel chemistry. Micro-powder at ¥101,500/t ($14,356) vs LCE at $16,266.
Despite GPC feedstock sliding RMB 100-350/MT, anode prices remain stable. Manufacturers are capturing margin gains from cheaper feedstock rather than passing savings downstream.
Anode Materials
High-End Artificial
$7,567 USD/t
NCM Cathodes
5-Series (Single Crystal)
$20,848 USD/t
LFP Cathode
Power Grade
$6,435 USD/t
Lithium Carbonate
Battery Grade
$16,266 USD/t
Lithium Hydroxide
Battery (Micro-powder)
$14,356 USD/t
Electrolyte Salt
LiPF₆
$24,328 USD/t
Cobalt Sulfate
Battery Grade
$13,010 USD/t
GPC Feedstock
Mid-Sulfur
$423 USD/t
Artificial Graphite remains the dominant power baseline.
Sinopec reduced GPC prices by RMB 100-350/MT. This eases cost pressure on graphitization plants, but anode makers are retaining the margin rather than passing savings downstream.
Anode enterprises are producing on a strict "sales-based" model to avoid inventory bloat. This supply discipline is keeping prices stable despite cheaper feedstock inputs.
The transition to Lengthwise Graphitization (LWG) furnaces (2,500-3,000 kWh/MT) from Acheson (4,000-4,800 kWh/MT) is enabling massive margin capture for advanced producers.
Cathode Dynamics: The cathode sector is experiencing direct cost pass-through from the lithium surge. LFP rose 4.6% WoW as producers face severe margin pressure. The spread between NCM 811 ($23k) and NCM 523 ($20.8k) reflects the "Power Premium" for EV-grade materials.
Direct lithium cost pass-through across chemistries.
Market Analysis: LCE has shattered the psychological RMB 110,000 ceiling, now trading at ¥115,000/MT. This rally is driven by futures financialization and trader hoarding rather than acute physical shortage. Traders have "suspended offers" in anticipation of higher prices. Q1 2026 outlook is bullish.
Breaking through the $16k psychological barrier.
LiOH trading at discount to LCE - oversupply signal.
Soft despite rising lithium - demand weakness.
The LCE futures market is driving speculative buying. Traders have suspended spot offers, hoarding inventory in anticipation of Q1 2026 price hikes. Physical shortage is not the driver.
The narrative of universal cost reduction that dominated H2 2025 is effectively over. We are entering a phase of asymmetric volatility with dangerous margin squeezes for midstream processors.
November LFP exports reached 7,721 tonnes - the highest monthly figure in H2 2025. China's near-total monopoly continues (28,342 tonnes exported vs 232 tonnes imported Jan-Nov).
Massive two-way NCM trade with South Korea (5,638t imports / 6,052t exports in Nov) confirms deep supply chain integration with LGES and SK On. Poland received 2,402t for LG's Wroclaw plant.
Risk Warning: The "easy money" era of deflationary BOM (Bill of Materials) is ending. Raw material spikes in Lithium are being passed through to cell costs with high efficiency, while manufacturing efficiency gains are being absorbed by suppliers to defend market share.
D3CT Recommendation: The winners of 2026 will not be those who simply negotiate lower prices, but those who master the technical physics of their supply chain - graphitization efficiency, coating throughput, and QA guardbands.
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