DELTA3CORETEC MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Oct 10, 2025 – Mar 12, 2026 (Weeks 41–52 + Weeks 1–10)
Source: BAIINFO & SMM · Analysis: Delta3CoreTec · All prices USD/t, average market
The Story: Electrolyte crisis → peak → reversal. Lithium boom → correction. Iran war → anode feedstock surge. 22 weeks, one connected narrative.
LiPF₆ surged from $9,073 to $25,161/t (Dec 11 peak, +177%) during the Q4 2025 electrolyte crisis, then reversed sharply — now at $15,940/t as structural oversupply dominates. VC followed a similar arc. FEC peaked and is now correcting.
LCE battery-grade rallied from $10,339 to a February 2026 peak of $25,238/t (driven by futures speculation + production halts), then corrected sharply to $22,419 before stabilizing at $22,896/t. LiOH tracked a similar trajectory with tight supply providing support.
LFP power cathode rose from $4,902 to $8,144/t (+66%), driven by lithium cost pass-through and strong demand from power + energy storage sectors. NCM 5-series tracked lithium input costs with a similar upward arc, now stabilizing at $26,287/t.
Artificial graphite anode sell prices barely moved (+3% over 22 weeks) despite surging feedstock costs. The Iran-Hormuz war is now driving oil slurry, GPC (+3.5% WoW), and needle coke higher, creating an unsustainable squeeze on producers locked into competitive selling.
LiPF₆ surged 177% to $25,161/t by Dec 11, then reversed to $15,940/t (−37% from peak) as structural overcapacity reasserted. The crisis was supply-driven; the reversal is structural.
LCE rallied from $10,339 to $25,238/t (Feb 26 peak) on futures speculation + CNY-break production halts, then corrected to $22,896/t. Now range-bound with lean inventory.
The Hormuz disruption ($94/bbl Brent) is driving oil slurry, GPC, needle coke, and coal tar pitch higher. Anode sell prices haven't moved — creating the most dangerous margin squeeze in the chain.
LFP power grade rose steadily from $4,902 to $8,144/t, driven by EV + energy storage demand and lithium cost pass-through. New capacity in Central/NW China gradually releasing.
Strategic insights on scale-up, market dynamics & supply chain from 25+ years of industry experience.
Schedule a Consultation